AI Futures: A Computational Analysis
Mapping Humanity’s Path Through the Intelligence Revolution (2025-2050)
A Monte Carlo Study of 1.3 Billion Simulated Futures
This comprehensive study employs advanced computational methods to analyze potential trajectories of artificial intelligence development and its societal impacts over the next 25 years. Through 1.3 billion Monte Carlo simulations across 64 scenarios, we identify three primary future clusters with distinct characteristics and probabilities.
Key Findings at a Glance
- No Single Dominant Future: Maximum scenario probability is 11.6%, indicating genuine uncertainty
- Three Major Pathways: Adaptive Integration (42%), Fragmented Disruption (31%), Constrained Evolution (27%)
- Critical Inflection Points: 2028 (capability demonstration), 2032 (workforce impact), 2035 (social adaptation)
- Historical Context: AI’s 0.86% annual displacement rate is comparable to past technological transitions
- The Real Threat: Not unemployment (manageable) but power concentration (77.9%) and democratic erosion (63.9%)
How to Read This Book
This GitBook is organized into seven parts:
- Introduction & Overview - Executive summary and key findings
- Methodology - Our computational framework and evidence assessment
- The Three Futures - Detailed exploration of each pathway with visualizations
- Deep Analysis - Results, patterns, and computational insights
- New Perspectives - Historical calibration and the agency framework
- Policy Implications - Recommendations for stakeholders
- Technical Appendices - Detailed data, visualizations, and technical documentation
Navigation Guide
- Use the sidebar to navigate between parts and chapters
- Each future scenario includes interactive visualizations
- Cross-references are linked throughout for easy exploration
- Technical details are in appendices for those who want deeper understanding
About This Study
Authors: [Research Team]
Institution: [Institution Name]
Date: November 2024
Version: 1.0
License: Creative Commons BY-SA 4.0
“The future is not a destination we’re heading toward, but a landscape of possibilities we’re actively creating through our choices today.”