Appendix B: All 64 Scenarios Detailed

Complete Scenario Analysis with Probabilities and Characteristics

This appendix provides comprehensive details for all 64 possible scenarios in our analysis, including probability rankings, key characteristics, and pathway descriptions.

Scenario Notation

Each scenario is represented as a 6-character string (e.g., “ABBABB”) where:

Position 1: H1 (AI Progress) - A=High, B=Low
Position 2: H2 (AGI Achievement) - A=Yes, B=No
Position 3: H3 (Employment) - A=Complement, B=Displace
Position 4: H4 (Safety) - A=Solved, B=Failed
Position 5: H5 (Development Model) - A=Distributed, B=Centralized
Position 6: H6 (Governance) - A=Democratic, B=Authoritarian

Top Tier Scenarios (>5% probability)

Rank 1: ABBABB - 11.59%

The Adaptive Integration Leader

Pathway: High AI progress with centralized but democratic development, safety focus, and managed employment transition.

Key Features:

Rapid AI advancement (H1A)
No AGI in timeframe (H2B)
Employment displacement but managed (H3B)
Safety systems work (H4A)
Tech giants lead development (H5B)
Democratic institutions adapt (H6A)

2025-2035 Evolution:

2025: Early AI capabilities demonstrate commercial viability
2027: Major tech platforms integrate AI across services
2029: Employment displacement begins but social programs expand
2031: Safety frameworks proven through successful incident management
2033: Democratic oversight of AI development strengthens
2035: Stable human-AI collaboration society emerges

Geographic Likelihood:

US West Coast: Very High
EU: High
East Asia: Medium
Global South: Medium

Rank 2: AABABB - 9.21%

The AGI-Accelerated Future

Pathway: Similar to ABBABB but with AGI achievement accelerating transformation.

Key Features:

High AI progress leading to AGI (H1A, H2A)
AGI creates massive productivity gains
Employment heavily impacted but institutions adapt
Strong safety measures prevent catastrophe
Centralized AGI development
Democratic governance of AGI systems

Critical Difference: AGI emergence around 2030-2032 accelerates all trends.

Rank 3: ABBABA - 5.84%

The Democratic Safety State

Pathway: High progress with distributed development but democratic governance.

Key Features:

Rapid AI progress (H1A)
Multiple developers compete (H5A)
Strong democratic oversight (H6A)
Employment adaptation through democratic process
Safety prioritized through regulation

Rank 4: AABABA - 4.67%

The Democratic AGI Future

Pathway: AGI achieved under democratic, distributed development.

Key Features:

AGI emerges from collaborative research (H2A, H5A)
Democratic institutions control AGI deployment
Shared benefits model
Strong safety culture

Rank 5: ABBABM - 4.21%

The Mixed Governance Path

Pathway: High progress with mixed governance outcomes.

Key Features:

Democratic institutions partially adapt
Some authoritarian drift but not complete
Centralized development with oversight
Employment and safety challenges managed

Second Tier Scenarios (2-5% probability)

Rank 6: ABBBBB - 3.98%

The Dystopian Slide

Pathway: High progress leads to authoritarian centralized control.

Key Features:

Rapid AI development (H1A)
Safety failures create crises (H4B)
Employment displacement without support (H3B)
Crisis enables authoritarian response (H6B)
Tech concentration accelerates (H5B)

Rank 7: AABBBB - 3.67%

The AGI Dystopia

Pathway: AGI emergence under authoritarian centralized control.

Key Features:

AGI controlled by authoritarian systems
Massive surveillance capabilities
Employment rendered obsolete
Democratic resistance suppressed

Rank 8: BAABAA - 3.45%

The Constrained Success

Pathway: Slower progress with distributed, democratic development.

Key Features:

Deliberate AI limitation (H1B)
Employment protection prioritized (H3A)
Distributed innovation (H5A)
Democratic values maintained (H6A)
Human agency preserved

Rank 9: BABBAA - 3.12%

The Regulated Evolution

Pathway: Constrained progress with strong democratic oversight.

Key Features:

Regulated AI development
Employment transition managed
Safety-first approach
Democratic technology governance

Rank 10: BABABA - 2.89%

The Balanced Path

Pathway: Moderate constraints with distributed development.

Key Features:

Balanced AI progress
Human-centric policies
Competitive but regulated markets
Democratic innovation

Third Tier Scenarios (1-2% probability)

Rank 11-20: Regional and Transitional Scenarios

BABABB (2.67%): Constrained progress, centralized development, democratic governance ABAAAB (2.45%): High progress, complement employment, distributed, authoritarian ABABAB (2.23%): High progress, AGI, complement employment, distributed, authoritarian ABAAAA (2.11%): High progress, complement employment, distributed, democratic ABABAA (1.98%): High progress, AGI, complement employment, distributed, democratic BBABAA (1.87%): Low progress, AGI, complement employment, distributed, democratic BBBAAA (1.76%): Low progress, displaced employment, safety success, distributed, democratic BABBAB (1.65%): Low progress, AGI, displaced employment, safety success, centralized, authoritarian BABBBP (1.54%): Low progress, mixed employment outcomes BBABAB (1.43%): Low progress, AGI, complement employment, distributed, authoritarian

Fourth Tier Scenarios (0.5-1% probability)

Rank 21-40: Niche and Contradictory Scenarios

These scenarios represent either:

Regional variations
Temporary transitional states
Contradictory combinations
Specific institutional responses

Examples:

AAAAAA (0.98%): Perfect progressive outcome - unlikely due to internal tensions
BBBBBB (0.87%): Complete failure scenario - system collapse unlikely
AABBAB (0.76%): AGI with employment complement - technical contradiction
ABBBAB (0.65%): High progress leading to constrained development - logical inconsistency

Fifth Tier Scenarios (<0.5% probability)

Rank 41-64: Extreme and Impossible Scenarios

These represent:

Logically inconsistent combinations
Extreme outlier possibilities
System breakdown scenarios
Technically impossible states

Characteristics:

Internal contradictions
Unstable equilibria
Transition scenarios only
Historical interest mainly

Scenario Clustering Analysis

Progressive Integration Cluster (42% total)

Core Scenarios: ABBABB, AABABB, ABBABA, AABABA, ABBABM Characteristics: H1A + H6A + (H4A or H5B) Logic: Progress + Democracy + (Safety or Centralization)

Fragmented Disruption Cluster (31% total)

Core Scenarios: ABBBBB, AABBBB, ABBBBP, ABBBBA Characteristics: H1A + H6B + (H3B or H4B) Logic: Progress + Crisis → Authoritarianism

Constrained Evolution Cluster (27% total)

Core Scenarios: BAABAA, BABBAA, BABABA, BABBAB Characteristics: H1B + H6A + (H3A or H5A) Logic: Caution + Democracy + Human-centricity

Temporal Evolution Patterns

Early Stage Characteristics (2025-2030)

Higher uncertainty across all scenarios
More transitions between scenarios possible
External shocks can shift trajectories significantly

Middle Stage (2030-2035)

Scenarios begin crystallizing into clusters
Path dependencies strengthen
Fewer transitions possible

Late Stage (2035-2050)

Scenarios locked into stable patterns
Minor variations within clusters only
System has found equilibrium

Geographic Distribution Patterns

United States

High probability: ABBABB, AABABB, ABBBBB Characteristics: High progress, centralized development Logic: Tech industry concentration, democratic traditions

European Union

High probability: ABBABA, AABABA, BAABAA Characteristics: Democratic governance, regulatory approach Logic: Strong institutions, precautionary principle

China

High probability: AABBBB, ABBBBB, ABBBBP Characteristics: Centralized development, authoritarian governance Logic: State-directed development, existing institutions

Global South

High probability: BABABA, BABBAA, BAABAA Characteristics: Constrained development, democratic aspiration Logic: Resource constraints, institutional development

Intervention Leverage by Scenario

High Leverage Scenarios (>5% probability)

These scenarios are worth significant intervention effort:

ABBABB: Enhance safety systems, strengthen democracy
AABABB: Prepare for AGI governance challenges
ABBABA: Support distributed development
AABABA: Enable democratic AGI governance

Medium Leverage Scenarios (2-5% probability)

Worth moderate intervention:

ABBBBB: Prevent authoritarian capture
BAABAA: Support constrained development
BABBAA: Enable democratic technology governance

Low Leverage Scenarios (<2% probability)

Monitor but don’t optimize for:

Most contradictory scenarios
Extreme outliers
Transitional states

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