Chapter 21: The Agency Framework

Captured vs Autonomous: The New Class Divide

Our analysis reveals a more fundamental division emerging than rich versus poor: those who maintain agency in an AI-saturated world versus those who become dependent on AI systems. This isn’t about wealth—it’s about the capacity for self-determination.

The Great Inversion

Traditional Value Hierarchy (Pre-2025)

High Status: Knowledge work, analysis, management
Medium Status: Skilled trades, services
Low Status: Manual labor, basic services

Emerging Value Hierarchy (Post-2040)

High Value: What AI cannot do or society won’t let it
New Scarcity: Human touch, genuine creativity, embodied wisdom
New Abundance: Analysis, content, basic coding

This inversion creates a paradox: many “successful” people are most vulnerable, while those with “outdated” skills may thrive.

The Bifurcation Economy

Our simulations consistently show society splitting into two distinct modes of existence:

The Integrated (Projected ~70%)

Characteristics:

Live within AI-managed environments
Optimize for convenience and comfort
Exchange privacy for services
Depend on universal basic income
Consume AI-generated content
Accept surveillance as normal

Daily Life in 2040:

Wake to AI-optimized schedule
Work consists of micro-tasks or entertainment
All decisions have AI recommendations
Social interactions heavily mediated
Entertainment perfectly personalized
Health continuously monitored

Benefits:

Material needs met
Convenience maximized
Cognitive load minimized
Safety generally assured
Entertainment unlimited

Costs:

Agency surrendered
Privacy extinct
Skills atrophied
Meaning unclear
Freedom constrained

The Autonomous (Projected ~30%)

Characteristics:

Maintain off-grid capability
Prioritize agency over convenience
Develop parallel economies
Preserve human skills
Create rather than consume
Build resilient networks

Daily Life in 2040:

Wake naturally, plan own day
Work involves creation and problem-solving
Decisions made independently
In-person community connections
Entertainment often self-made
Health through lifestyle choices

Benefits:

Agency preserved
Skills maintained
Meaning clear
Community strong
Freedom real

Costs:

More effort required
Less material wealth
Convenience sacrificed
Some services unavailable
Higher cognitive load

The Skills Inversion

Skills Becoming Commoditized

AI makes these formerly valuable skills nearly worthless:

Analytical Skills:

Data analysis → AI surpasses humans
Financial modeling → Automated completely
Legal research → AI knows all precedent
Medical diagnosis → AI more accurate

Creative Skills (Partially):

Content writing → AI generates infinitely
Basic design → Automated tools
Simple music → AI composition
Stock photography → AI generated

Administrative Skills:

Scheduling → Fully automated
Basic accounting → AI handled
Report writing → AI generated
Email management → AI filtered

Skills Becoming Precious

Physical Skills:

Food production → Real food is luxury
Repair abilities → Understanding systems
Construction → Building shelter
Craftsmanship → Human-made premium

Social Skills:

In-person connection → Increasingly rare
Community organizing → Trust networks
Teaching → Human development
Caregiving → Genuine empathy

Meta Skills:

Critical thinking → Questioning AI
System thinking → Understanding connections
Ethical reasoning → Making value choices
Mindfulness → Present awareness

The Digital Amish Phenomenon

Selective Technology Adoption

Communities emerging that consciously choose their technology ceiling:

Principles:

Technology should enhance not replace human capability
Users must understand what they use
Community bonds prioritize over efficiency
Local resilience over global dependency

Examples in 2040:

Use 2020s-level smartphones but not neural interfaces
Solar panels yes, smart grids no
Electric vehicles yes, autonomous driving no
Internet for information, not for living

Geographic Distribution

Rural Autonomous Zones:

Vermont, Montana, New Zealand
Self-sufficient communities
Local economy focus
Technology selective

Urban Autonomous Enclaves:

Brooklyn makers, Berlin hackers
High-tech but self-hosted
Privacy-focused
Alternative economy participants

Integrated Megacities:

Singapore, Shanghai, Seoul
Full AI integration
Convenience maximized
Surveillance complete

The Agency Preservation Strategies

Level 1: Digital Autonomy

Maintain Control of Your Digital Life:

Self-host critical services
Use open-source alternatives
Encrypt everything
Own your data
Regular digital detoxes

Level 2: Skill Autonomy

Develop AI-Resistant Capabilities:

Learn physical crafts
Develop deep expertise
Build social skills
Create genuine art
Master presence

Level 3: Economic Autonomy

Build Resilience:

Multiple income streams
Local currency participation
Barter networks
Minimal debt
Value creation focus

Strengthen Human Connections:

In-person community
Mutual aid networks
Skill sharing circles
Offline relationships
Trust building

Level 5: Physical Autonomy

Reduce System Dependence:

Food production capacity
Energy independence
Water security
Shelter skills
Health knowledge

The System Dynamics

Why Both Groups Persist

The system needs both populations:

Integrated Provide:

Consumer base
Data generation
System validation
Economic activity
Political stability

Autonomous Provide:

Innovation pressure
Resilience nodes
Cultural preservation
System alternatives
Revolution prevention

The Boundary Dynamics

Permeable but Difficult:

Moving Integrated → Autonomous: Possible but requires sacrifice
Moving Autonomous → Integrated: Easy but often one-way
Boundary maintenance: Constant effort required

Generational Patterns:

Children of Integrated may rebel toward autonomy
Children of Autonomous may seek integration
Each generation chooses anew

Policy Implications

Protecting Choice

Governments must ensure both paths remain viable:

Preserve Right to Disconnect: Legal protections for opting out
Prevent Forced Integration: No mandatory AI interaction
Support Parallel Systems: Allow alternative economies
Protect Analog Options: Maintain non-digital services
Enable Movement: People must be able to choose

Supporting Both Populations

For the Integrated:

Ensure basic dignity
Prevent exploitation
Maintain safety nets
Provide meaning opportunities
Protect remaining rights

For the Autonomous:

Don’t criminalize self-sufficiency
Allow alternative systems
Protect community rights
Enable local governance
Respect different values

Individual Strategies

Choosing Your Path

Questions to Ask:

What do I value more: convenience or control?
Can I handle uncertainty and effort?
What gives my life meaning?
How important is community?
What legacy do I want?

Preparing for Either Path

Universal Preparations:

Build both digital and physical skills
Create strong social networks
Maintain learning ability
Develop resilience
Stay adaptable

The Third Way?

Some attempt to bridge both worlds:

High-tech autonomous (hackers, makers)
Selective integration (use but don’t depend)
Seasonal movement (integrated work, autonomous life)
Professional integrated, personal autonomous

The Historical Parallel

This isn’t unprecedented. Throughout history, some chose the dominant system while others maintained alternatives:

Roman citizens vs Germanic tribes
Court life vs monasteries
Industrial workers vs craftsmen
Corporate employees vs entrepreneurs

The difference now: the choice is starker, the consequences greater, and the window for choosing narrower.

The Ultimate Question

The agency framework isn’t about judging which path is “better”—both serve essential functions. It’s about recognizing that:

The choice exists (but won’t forever)
Both paths have costs (know what you’re choosing)
Society needs both (respect different choices)
You must choose (no neutral ground)
Choice requires action (default is integration)

In the end, the agency framework asks: Will you be a subject or citizen of the AI age?

The answer determines not just your individual future, but collectively, the future of human agency itself.

Next: Parallel Futures →
Previous: Historical Calibration ←