Glossary
A
Adaptive Integration The most probable future scenario (42%) characterized by successful human-AI collaboration, managed economic transition, and preserved democratic governance.
AGI (Artificial General Intelligence) AI systems that match or exceed human cognitive abilities across all domains. Our analysis gives this a 44.3% probability by 2050.
Agency The capacity for self-determination and autonomous decision-making. Identified as the new dividing line between “integrated” and “autonomous” populations.
Authoritarian Drift The tendency toward centralized, non-democratic governance. Our models show 63.9% probability in AI futures.
B
Bifurcation Economy The predicted split of society into two parallel tracks: those who trade autonomy for AI-provided convenience (70%) and those who maintain self-sufficiency (30%).
Byzantine Fault Tolerance Systems that can maintain consensus despite malicious actors. Relevant to distributed AI governance models.
C
Causal Network Model Our methodology linking six hypotheses through weighted relationships to generate scenario probabilities.
Centralization Probability The likelihood (77.9%) that AI development concentrates in few entities due to compute requirements and network effects.
Constrained Evolution The third future scenario (27%) where society deliberately slows AI deployment to preserve human agency.
Convergence Analysis Mathematical testing showing our probability distributions stabilize after ~3,000 iterations.
D
Demographic Tailwind The coincidence of AI automation with aging populations, potentially offsetting labor shortages rather than creating unemployment.
Digital Amish Communities that deliberately choose technological ceilings, adopting some but not all AI capabilities.
Displacement Rate The annual percentage of jobs automated. Our projection: 0.86% per year (historically manageable).
E
Evidence Synthesis Our systematic integration of 120 sources to establish prior probabilities for each hypothesis.
Extinction Risk The probability of human extinction from AI. Hypothesis H4B explores this dimension.
F
Fragmented Disruption The dystopian scenario (31%) featuring rapid displacement, social fragmentation, and authoritarian responses.
G
Governance Hypothesis (H6) Whether democratic institutions survive the AI transition. Shows only 36.1% probability of preservation.
H
Historical Calibration Comparing AI’s impact to past transitions. Reveals 0.86% annual displacement is comparable to Industrial Revolution.
Human-AI Complementarity Scenario where AI augments rather than replaces human workers (H3A).
I
Integration Window The 2025-2028 period with highest intervention effectiveness (85-95%).
Intelligence Explosion Theoretical rapid recursive self-improvement of AI systems leading to superintelligence.
M
Monte Carlo Simulation Our computational method using 1.3 billion random samples to map probability distributions.
Metacognitive Skills Higher-order thinking abilities that remain uniquely human and valuable in AI age.
N
Narrow AI AI systems specialized for specific tasks, contrasted with AGI. 55.7% probability of remaining dominant.
P
Parallel Futures The concept that different populations will experience different AI futures simultaneously.
Power Concentration The centralization of control over AI systems. Identified as greater threat than unemployment.
Probability Flux The uncertainty range in our predictions, decreasing from ±15% (2025) to ±5% (2050).
R
Resilience Nodes Communities maintaining capacity to function without AI, providing system-wide antifragility.
Robustness Score Metric (0-1) indicating how stable a scenario is across different model assumptions.
S
Scenario Space The 64 possible combinations of our six binary hypotheses (2^6).
Sectoral Adoption Different timeline for AI integration across industries, from tech (95% by 2040) to construction (65%).
Skills Inversion The revaluation where traditional high-status skills become commoditized while “outdated” skills gain value.
T
Temporal Dynamics How probabilities evolve year-by-year from 2025-2050 in our model.
Tipping Points Critical moments where small changes trigger large systemic shifts. Key points: 2028, 2032, 2035.
Transition Rate Historical comparison metric. AI: 0.86% annually vs Industrial Revolution: 0.7% annually.
U
Uncertainty Propagation How we model parameter uncertainty through the full Monte Carlo simulation.
Universal Basic Services Proposed policy providing healthcare, education, and housing regardless of employment.
V
Value Alignment The challenge of ensuring AI systems pursue human-compatible goals.
W
Winner-Take-All Dynamics Economic forces creating monopolistic tendencies in AI development.
Workforce Transformation The 21.4% net employment displacement projected by 2050, with new job creation partially offsetting.